La crescita del video online, probabile causa della riduzione del traffico P2P, tuttavia non compensa. Questi i risultati di un recente studio relativo al mercato giapponese. Da tempo il prof. Andrew Odlyzko negli Stati Uniti ha documentato una simile tendenza.

Yet there is very little research on commercial residential internet usage. Hence the importance of this paper, which found that Japanese residential traffic grew 27% on average from May 2005 to May 2008.

They found that demand is still dominated by a handful of “heavy-hitters” – some 4% o all users account for 75% of the inbound and 60% of the outbound traffic, mostly using P2P.

In 2005, 63% of traffic was user-to-user, yet by in 2008 much of it was from “client-server type applications”. It is hard to say how much.

But the researchers concluded that traffic growth had slowed “due primarily to the stalled growth of peer-to-peer traffic that is still dominant in the current traffic. At the same time, the usage of ordinary users is slowly swelling with increased diversity, driven by video and other rich media content. “

Still, video traffic is still “much smaller than” P2P, and would not greatly “raise the traffic growth rate in the next few years.”

Their finding echoes an analysis by Cisco, who calculated that P2P had fallen from 60% of all internet traffic in 2006 to 51% in 2007.

Via Fall-off in P2P is slowing internet growth

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